I don't care what anyone else says, anytime you have a release of radiation into the atmosphere from the melt down of a nuclear reactor you have a risk for the increase of the gross incidence of environmental mutation (GIEM) over time. This is because nuclear materials released into the atmosphere generally consists of particular matter which may have a very long half-life and remain hazardous in the environment for hundreds, even thousands of years! In the case of cesium-137 which has a half-live of 30 years, it may remain hazardous up to for up to 300 years! But in the case of plutonium-239, it has a half life of 24,000 years, which means it may remain hazardous for 240,000 years! That means any life form those particles come in contact with for hundreds or even thousands of years may be effected. It does not matter how diluted the radiation is, over time it will fall to the earth, come in contact with animals and plants, enter the food chain, and begin to cause mutations.
Of course those closest to a nuclear accident are at greatest risk to be effected by the radioactive particulate matter released into the atmosphere. They may develop cancers over time, especially if they remain in a contaminated area which increases their overall exposure to radiation over time. Remember, this radioactive material does not go away; some forms, like cesium-137 with a half life of 30 years, or strontium-90, with a half life or 29 years, will remain hazardous in the environment for hundreds of years. So where the fallout is extreme it may turn certain areas into dead zones.
This occurred at Chernobyl in 1986 when a reactor used to make material for nuclear bombs melted down and having no containment vessel resulted in radioactive material being released into high into the atmosphere for a number of months. A death zone with a radius of 30 kilometers was declared around the plant; however, people living in the area have sense been exposed to radiation through contaminated soil, water, plants or animals. If a bird flies into the area, drinks water, then is later shot and killed by a hunter who feeds the bird to his children, then the children are contaminated, even though they may live no where near the death zone. So you see, the reality of the situation is often much worse than what those who operate nuclear plants would like the public to know.
In the case of the nuclear accident in Japan we have a complex of nuclear reactors being damaged, plus containment pools where spent fuel rods are stored have caught fire when water used to cool the pools was lost due to power failure. These fuel rods became very hot, the water in the containment pool evaporated, then the rods caught fire. Explosions resulted and radioactive material was released into the atmosphere. This includes iodine-131 and cesium-137 which have half-lives of 8 days and 30 years, respectively. That means the radioactive iodine may be hazardous for up to about 80 days, where is can cause thyroid cancer in children, especially if they consume dairy products from cows exposed to the radiation. However, the cesium-137 can rain to the earth and contaminate soil and water for up to 300 years! That means a death zone could be formed around the nuclear power plant for a radius of 10 to 20 kilometers or more, depending upon how much fallout there is. Prevailing winds may have carried much of the fallout over the ocean, which means it may rain down into the water. Sea water is very good at diluting such radioactive fallout; however, the radioactive particulate mater may still enter the food chain when fish and mollusk ingest the mutagen agents. That means that over time people may become exposed by eating contaminated food harvested from the sea. Although this may constitute a very small risk, if your child is the one that develops thyroid cancer or a worse malignancy, this represents a terrible tragedy to you and your family!
Note: I personally had a brother who was born in 1946 with mental retardation, during the years of above ground nuclear bomb testing. He developed thyroid cancer at the age of 43. This resulted in removal of his thyroid gland and the necessity to be upon medication for the rest of his life. Who is to say this his mental retardation and later cancer was not due to exposure to radioactive fallout from above ground testing of nuclear bombs during the 1940's, 50's and 60's? Of course my parents were both heavy smokers and carcinogens from tobacco products could have also caused my brother's mental retardation and cancer later in life. In any case, it is imperative that parents limit their exposure and exposure of their children to mutagen agents, be that from radiation or chemical substances.
How may the nuclear accident in Japan in the aftermath of the 8.9 earthquake and devastating tsunami effect America? It is very unlikely that any significantly high levels of radiation will reach the United States from Japan. However, any military personnel or American citizens in the area near the nuclear power plant which has released radiation into the atmosphere could experience increased levels of radiation and not be aware of it unless they are wearing a radiation sensor.
What people don't tell you is that this stuff is not going away any time soon, especially if significant amounts of cesium-137 or strontium-90 are released into the atmosphere. Even though particulate matter becomes extremely diluted in the atmosphere and will be spread far and wide around the world, each particle of radioactive material is capable of mutating genes in animals and plants. That means when these toxic agents rain out of the sky they contaminate the water, plants and animals and enter the food chain. The radioactive dust which falls into the ocean will contaminate fish and other marine life -- plus it may be concentrated in mollusks. Although diluted, still every particle will remain around for hundreds of years and over that time may act as a mutagen effecting every living organism it comes into contact with over a very long, long time. That is one reason that cancers have been on the increase since the dawn of the nuclear era -- what the governments do not want people to know is that this stuff sticks around and keeps effecting every living organism it comes in contact with for what amounts to many times our life times.
For example, lets say the radioactive plume of dust and debris which exploded and rose into the atmosphere high over Japan drifts out to sea. As the radioactive dust cloud disperses the level of radiation decreases, yet each and every particle of radioactive material remains and is able to cause mutations; i.e., cancer. If the radioactive dust falls into the ocean it may be ingested by fish ... say a school of mackerel. Those fish may be eaten by larger fish and before you know it these fish are harvested and end up on our dinner tables. Those tiny particles of radioactive material are still in the fish and will end up in whoever eats those fish. Perhaps birds will eat some of the fish. Maybe whales will eat some of them. But eventually people will be eating fish or other plants and animals which contain radioactive material that was released into the atmosphere by those power plants in Japan. Mollusks also may concentrate radioactive particular matter and when people eat these they may be contaminated. This is especially a concern in areas of the world where there is extreme poverty and fishermen harvest from the sea and do not check their harvest for contaminants, such as heavy metals or radioactive particular matter.
What is so terrible about exposure to radiation is that its effects may not be seen for years. It is all a matter of probability really, and how much radiation one is exposed to over time. But here is something they (parties which profit from marketing contaminated produce) often don't tell you: these probability factors are all based upon a mean value, and some people will be in the middle, some below the middle, and some above the middle. If you are one of the unlucky ones, you may be above the mean, which means you win! You get cancer at a younger age because somewhere along the line you ingested a tiny bit of particular matter which was radioactive. It could have come from Russia with love or from Japan with denial that there is anything at all to worry about, for what harm can come to America from a little bit of glowing dust?
In truth the radioactive dust does not glow; you can only see such scintillation if you mix the radioactive material with a phosphorescent agent like that which is on the inside or a TV tube or old-style computer monitor -- glow in the dark watch faces are made in this fashion and contain a trace amount of radioactive material. If you go into a totally dark room and let your eyes adjust to the dark, then examine the glowing area of a watch under a 10X magnifying glass, you can actually see the tiny flashes of light each time an atom is excited by impact with a particle of radiation. Unfortunately there is no way to see or sense each time our body is bombarded by radiation; generally what is referred to as background radiation in the environment is very low. But it can be higher if you live in a home where radon gas from the foundation of your house or concrete blocks or bricks seeps into the home and is concentrated. Radiation also comes from other devices found in the home like smoke alarms. Plus you are exposed to radiation every time you are X-rayed at a hospital or go through an X-ray machine at an airport. Unless you wear a radiation detector from birth to death you will never know exactly how much radiation you are exposed to during your life time. The point is, you want to keep your exposure to a minimum, because radiation causes mutation of genes, and that translates to cancer.
The increase in cancer with age is ultimately the result of exposure to mutagen agents including radioactive particulate matter in the environment. Every time there is a nuclear accident or disaster and radioactive material leaks or explodes into the atmosphere, the gross incidence of environmental mutation (GIEM) is increased. It is worse for babies and children as they will live the longest and hence have the greatest probability of being exposed to the higher dosages of radiation that are in the environment.
Remember, we are talking about radioactive material from a nuclear power plant, which is really terrible stuff that may have a half-life of 30 years and remain hazardous for as long as 300 years. If a tiny particle of this dust finds its way into the food chain and you eat it, your risk of cancer is increased. If a tiny particle of this dust finds its way into your lungs, your risk of cancer is increased -- even if you cannot detect the particle and even it it doesn't find its way into your lungs for another five, ten or fifteen years -- when it does, then your risk of getting cancer increases. This may only be a minute amount, but when coupled with all the other background radiation one is exposed to it still represents an increased amount. Then if you are one of the unfortunate ones who develops cancer from an "unknown cause" just remember, I told you so!
With this in mind you may ask yourself if nuclear power plants in the US are safe? If nothing else, the disaster in Japan should signal the alarm that some of our nuclear plants are outdated. Any nuclear power plant which is more than 50 years old needs to be shutdown and/or replaced. Any nuclear power plant which is 20 or more years old needs to be upgraded especially with respect to computer technology and robotics. In fact, with the advances in computer technology and robotics it should be possible to design a new class of fail safe nuclear power plant that could be serviced by robots even in the even of a nuclear accident.
Nuclear power plants do not last forever. They need to be regularly updated to reflect advances in technology and maintained to achieve a high degree of safety. In fact, Murphey's Law of Nuclear Accidents which says, "If anything can go wrong with a nuclear reactor it will go wrong sooner or later especially if not properly maintained, " is very much in effect for all nuclear power plants. The problem is, over time inflation increases the cost to build, service, upgrade and maintain nuclear power plants. So the tendency is to not allocate money to upgrade old nuclear power plants or to not build new nuclear power plants and phase out the old nuclear power plants. This means there may be nuclear accidents just waiting to happen wherever there is an old nuclear power plant that is still online.
To avoid the consequences of future nuclear power plant catastrophes one solution would be to drill fail safe holes beneath reactors such that in a disaster an explosive device could be detonated to demolish a reactor and drop the reactor deep into the earth that it might then be sealed with earth and concrete. Such technology if properly designed would even make it possible to replace a nuclear reactor that may have suffered a melt down and dumped into a deep fail safe hole in the earth. This is essentially how underground testing of nuclear bombs is done; a hole is drilled deep into the earth and a nuclear bomb is exploded; then the hole is covered up. Well, the same principle can be used to expose of a nuclear reactor if there is a melt down simply by drilling a deep hole beneath the reactor that it will fall into this fail safe hole if ever there is a melt down.
Of course building a new class of fail safe nuclear power plants like that I have described and replacing old nuclear power plants with new fail safe nuclear power plants, is an expensive proposition and can only be done over time. However, having a long term plan to upgrade nuclear power plants and make them almost disaster proof using fail safe drop holes would greatly reduce the risk of nuclear melt downs contaminating the environment in the future and would be worth the effort and expense as it would avoid the possibility of creating death zones should worse come to worse and everything go wrong as it has in Japan after the earthquake and tsunami.
That said, the reality of the situation is that radiation from Japan is a real threat not only in Japan but to America and the rest of the world. The gross incidence of environmental mutation (GIEM) will go up in proportion to the amount of radioactive material released. The environment will be contaminated; animals and plants will be effected and the incidence of mutations; hence cancer, will go up over time. There will be more mutations seen in the environment, especially in areas close to the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear complex In some places around the world there will be more frogs or toads with six toes or two heads. There may even be human babies with six toes also and perhaps even two heads. Then there will be more cases of people with cancer. No one will attribute these mutations to radiation released into the environment by man; why that might not be good PR for the power companies. But that's okay, of course, as long as it isn't you.
